Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.