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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.