🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|